3.9 C
New York
Wednesday, December 1, 2021

The magnifying glass on the Budget for 2022

Congress is already working on the analysis of the Budget invoice presented by the Executive, amid the political tension within the ruling coalition. the Road map prepared by the team headed by the Minister of Finance Martín Guzmán together with the rest of the economic bishops of the Casa Rosada outlines the course in terms of public spending by 2022, which is precisely a scene of conflict with former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.

GDP, dollar and inflation

The Government projects that the the national economy grows 4 percent, thanks to an advance of private consumption of the order of 4.6 percent and 6.6 percent in investment. As for the offer, the manufacturing industry would rise below the average, by 2.6 percent, while the sector with the greatest recovery would be Hotels and restaurants, with 41.2, which presupposes a post-pandemic scenario.

Agriculture would improve 4.7 percent, thanks to projected increase in soybean harvest, which would reach 50 million tons. The field would also benefit from export prices that would continue to be very favorable. Soybeans, for example, is projected at $ 520 per ton. The exported value of goods and services would increase by 5.9 percent in 2022 and the imported value would increase by 12.3 percent. So, the trade surplus would close at 9323 million dollars.

Official estimates place dollar without taxes at 131 pesos by December 2022, which implies a 28 percent increase. The advance of the currency would be somewhat behind the inflation calculated at 33 percent. By the way, the government updated its inflation projection for this year to 45.1 percent, after the initial goal of 29 percent set at the end of last year was buried.

Total cost

The project includes a year-on-year increase in total public spending of 36.8 percent. Current spending advances just above inflation, at 34.3 percent. In particular, social security benefits they are up 39.2 percent. Meanwhile, capital expenditures do so at 61.8 percent.

Referring to infrastructureGuzmán affirms in the Budget that “it is contemplated to sustain capital investment items at 2.4 percent of GDP, a level that represents an advance of 0.3 percentage points with respect to 2021 if the items associated with mitigating the adverse effects of the second wave, “he says.

Capital expenditures include construction of the aqueduct from the north of Santa Cruz, from the northeast of the province of Buenos Aires and from Formosa. In terms of housing, it is expected to cover more than 10,000 housing solutions corresponding to the PROCREATE, and carry out the execution of 100,000 social housing, both started and finished.

In the hydrocarbons sector, “items are foreseen for works in the gas pipeline network to expand its transport capacity from the fields, mainly unconventional, to the productive poles and those with the highest residential consumption ”, in particular, for Construction Stage I of the Nestor Kirchner – Transporte.Ar Gas Pipeline between the towns of Tratayén (Neuquén Province) and Salliqueló.

In transport, the enhancement and improvements of the railway lines of the Belgrano Cargas, Sarmiento, Roca, San Martín and Belgrano Sur. In energy, the construction of the RA10 and CAREM reactors.

Debt, deficit and IMF

By 2022, the budgeted primary deficit of the National Administration reaches 3.6 percent of GDP, which would be reduced by 3.4 percent after the collection of income from the Anses Sustainability Guarantee Fund. It is below the red 4 percent that the Government estimates will close in 2021, of which only 2.1 percent have been executed so far.

“In 2022, the needs will be covered through the issuance of public debt in pesos in the local market, temporary advances from the BCRA within the limits established by current regulations and financing provided by international organizations,” indicates the Government.

With respect to maturities in foreign currency, the Budget projects the payment of interest services for a amount of approximately 1,386 million dollars, “Corresponding to the securities issued in the debt swaps with foreign legislation and local legislation carried out during the year 2020”.

“Regarding the capital payments corresponding to the Stand-By contract in force with the IMF A new agreement with reasonable financial conditions is expected to be reached in 2022. this allows the maturities to be extended beyond 2024 ”, anticipates the Government in relation to the negotiation with the Fund.

Payments for services of interest and principal of the rest of international and bilateral organizations They will be financed through new disbursements from the same organizations. “While the maturities of Non-transferable letters from the BCRA for 7,758 million dollars, they will be refinanced through the issuance of new non-transferable bills, with a maturity postponement beyond 2024 ”.

Fees, health and education

In Economy, they calculate that economic subsidies would be at 1.8 percent, down from 2.2 percent in 2021 thanks to the end of the Gas Plan implemented by the previous government. Of this total, 1.4 points would correspond to energy and 0.4 to transport. The numbers imply a rate update in line with inflation.

The Government plans to locate the public investment to 2.4 percent of GDP in 2022, above the 2.1 percent of 2021. An increase is expected in the functions of education (+2.3 points), drinking water and sewerage (+2.2 points) and housing and urban planning (+0.7 points ).

In health, the acquisition of 80 million doses of vaccines to continue facing the pandemic, along with 5 million antigen tests and 700,000 neokits for the detection of Covid-19. In education, the Budget foresees “the progressive recovery of investment for the period 2021/2023 until reaching a participation of 6 percent of GDP, including both the national effort and that of the provinces.”

Privileges

The project details the amount that the State ceases to receive as a result of the exclusion from the Income Tax of officials of the Judicial Power at the national and provincial level.

For 2021 this item is calculated at 52 billion pesos and by 2022, at almost 73 billion pesos that the State stops collecting. To put these values ​​in perspective, they can be compared with the 153 billion that the Government plans to allocate in 2021 for the purchase of vaccines to face the pandemic.

Monitors sale
The Sale will be end with in 24 hours

Related Articles

Best Buy Cyber ​​Monday Advance Deals: Headphones, Smart Speakers and More

Several retailers got off to an early start with Black Friday deals ahead of the hectic, no-holds-barred weekend that begins just after...

The best advance Black Friday deals on Amazon devices

If you're looking to get a great score on an Amazon device before Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday, you're in luck. ...

Black Friday 2021 Smart Home Tech Deals: Speakers, Cameras, Robots, and More

There's never a better time to dive into the smart home than Black Friday and its close cousin Cyber ​​Monday. Traditionally,...
Sale Best Smart Watches Under 30

Stay Connected

0FansLike
3,036FollowersFollow
0SubscribersSubscribe

Latest Articles

Best Buy Cyber ​​Monday Advance Deals: Headphones, Smart Speakers and More

Several retailers got off to an early start with Black Friday deals ahead of the hectic, no-holds-barred weekend that begins just after...

The best advance Black Friday deals on Amazon devices

If you're looking to get a great score on an Amazon device before Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday, you're in luck. ...

Black Friday 2021 Smart Home Tech Deals: Speakers, Cameras, Robots, and More

There's never a better time to dive into the smart home than Black Friday and its close cousin Cyber ​​Monday. Traditionally,...

The best Black Friday tech deals under $ 50

What can $ 50 get you these days? It turns out that quite a lot; you just need to know...

Ohio sues Facebook, says it misled the public about the effect its products have on children

Ohio is suing Facebook's parent company Meta, alleging that the social media platform misled the public about the effects its products have...